Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Novak 45.0% (+9.4%)
Offensive zone
Novak 51.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Nelson
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
42.9% (198)
+8.4%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
40.9% (22)
+17.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Novak is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Nelson
Novak
Home
52.5% (590)
40.9% (110)
Away
51.7% (619)
44.5% (110)
By Period
Nelson
Novak
P1
50.5%
39.1%
P2
54.4%
43.9%
P3
51.4%
44.9%
OT
47.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
52.1%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.7%