Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Novak 45.6% (+2.8%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 53.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Nelson
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
43.8% (384)
+3.1%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
58.8% (17)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
100.0% (1)
-75.0%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +75.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Nelson
Novak
Home
48.9% (521)
46.5% (202)
Away
45.5% (516)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Nelson
Novak
P1
45.9%
49.2%
P2
48.0%
44.2%
P3
48.0%
40.0%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
47.3%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
44.5%