Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Zegras 41.5% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 76.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 94.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 93.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 86.5%
86.5%
13.5%
Nelson
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nelson
Zegras
Last 5: Nelson 4-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Zegras
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
39.4% (510)
+10.5%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
47.1% (34)
+5.7%
On even strength, Nelson has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zegras
Home
49.8% (458)
42.3% (272)
Away
49.0% (506)
37.5% (272)
By Period
Nelson
Zegras
P1
50.1%
37.6%
P2
45.4%
41.5%
P3
52.7%
40.8%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.1%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
39.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 03:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 02:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |