Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Zegras 43.3% (+6.8%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 52.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Nelson
Zegras
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
39.8% (128)
+6.3%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
22.2% (9)
+12.3%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
0.0% (1)
+30.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Zegras is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (102).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zegras
Home
48.7% (419)
29.7% (74)
Away
41.3% (368)
48.4% (64)
By Period
Nelson
Zegras
P1
44.6%
40.7%
P2
47.3%
35.1%
P3
43.0%
41.0%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.4%