Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +20.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Zegras 35.4% (+20.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 59.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 89.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 82.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 89.5%
89.5%
10.5%
Nelson
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
29.6% (230)
+21.1%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
32.1% (56)
+26.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
100.0% (1)
-56.6%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +56.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Zegras is 30.7% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zegras
Home
52.3% (621)
30.6% (147)
Away
48.9% (618)
30.0% (140)
By Period
Nelson
Zegras
P1
48.4%
33.0%
P2
53.5%
31.7%
P3
50.3%
25.6%
OT
41.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |