Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Zegras 39.2% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 97.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 92.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 89.8%
89.8%
10.2%
Nelson
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
7
(20 meetings)
13
7
Nelson
Zegras
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Zegras
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Zegras
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
4
Nelson
Zegras
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
38.6% (1,669)
+9.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
38.5% (148)
+16.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
28.6% (7)
+15.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Zegras is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zegras
Home
50.0% (5,845)
39.9% (882)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
37.4% (942)
By Period
Nelson
Zegras
P1
48.7%
40.2%
P2
48.5%
38.0%
P3
47.7%
37.7%
OT
45.6%
31.6%
Final 5 min
47.8%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 14:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 16:51 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 01:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 17:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 17:47 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:38 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 03:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 02:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |