Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Zegras 42.6% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 70.4%
Defensive zone
Zegras 71.4%
Neutral zone
Zegras 75.1%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 73.5%
26.5%
73.5%
Nelson
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nelson
Zegras
Last 7: Nelson 2-5 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
2
Nelson
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
3
Nelson
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
41.1% (559)
+5.8%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
50.0% (12)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
50.0% (2)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Zegras is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zegras
Home
48.9% (521)
45.7% (247)
Away
45.5% (516)
38.0% (326)
By Period
Nelson
Zegras
P1
45.9%
45.5%
P2
48.0%
36.8%
P3
48.0%
41.1%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 17:47 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:38 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |