Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Jarnkrok wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 43.7% vs Duchene 50.3% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 69.6%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 54.9%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 61.0%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Jarnkrok
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Jarnkrok
Duchene
Last 9: Jarnkrok 3-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
1
0
Jarnkrok
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
6
Jarnkrok
Duchene
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
38.4% (138)
49.4% (933)
-11.0%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
58.7% (104)
-3.1%
On even strength, Duchene has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Jarnkrok is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (117).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Duchene is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Duchene
Home
45.0% (60)
51.9% (534)
Away
35.6% (87)
48.7% (524)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Duchene
P1
37.8%
51.0%
P2
41.5%
48.8%
P3
38.9%
50.6%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
52.8%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
52.0%▲
48.5%
39.5%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2014 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3 | 16:01 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3 | 05:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 2 | 06:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 1 | 09:49 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 1 | 03:22 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |