Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 48.1% vs Duchene 54.1% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 28-24 in 52 meetings
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 57.1%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 62.2%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 60.0%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Jarnkrok
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
28
(52 meetings)
24
28
Jarnkrok
Duchene
Last 10: Jarnkrok 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
9
10
Jarnkrok
Duchene
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
7
6
Jarnkrok
Duchene
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
8
12
Jarnkrok
Duchene
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (3,354)
53.9% (10,396)
-4.6%
Power Play
51.9% (258)
56.9% (1,665)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (640)
49.1% (468)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Jarnkrok is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,982).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Duchene
Home
50.6% (2,261)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
45.3% (1,991)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Duchene
P1
47.7%
54.5%
P2
48.0%
54.5%
P3
48.8%
53.4%
OT
40.5%
56.3%
Final 5 min
48.7%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 10:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 1 | 18:22 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 2 | 04:34 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 23, 2017 | 2 | 15:33 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2017 | 1 | 18:13 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 23, 2017 | 1 | 08:20 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 2 | 10:15 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 2 | 07:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 2 | 06:36 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 1 | 13:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 1 | 04:07 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 1 | 01:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 1 | 01:16 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 1 | 00:55 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Dec 6, 2016 | 2 | 13:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 3 | 14:48 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 2 | 08:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |