Casey Mittelstadt vs Dawson Mercer
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Mercer 43.3% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Mittelstadt leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 63.3%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 59.8%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 55.6%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 59.9%
59.9%
40.1%
Mittelstadt
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Mittelstadt
Mercer
Last 6: Mittelstadt 3-3 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Mittelstadt
Mercer
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
1
Mittelstadt
Mercer
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
1
Mittelstadt
Mercer
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
41.0% (212)
+3.7%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
35.7% (14)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
36.4% (11)
+3.6%
On power play, Mittelstadt has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Mittelstadt is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Mercer
Home
46.0% (491)
45.2% (126)
Away
42.4% (512)
35.1% (111)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Mercer
P1
44.0%
34.5%
P2
46.4%
43.4%
P3
41.9%
45.8%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.3%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:53 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:09 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:58 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 03:29 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |