Casey Mittelstadt vs Dawson Mercer
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Mittelstadt wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.9% vs Mercer 41.8% (+12.5%)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 51.7%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 50.7%
Neutral zone
Mercer 52.8%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Mittelstadt
Mercer
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (139)
38.8% (263)
+11.6%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
35.3% (17)
+19.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
50.0% (10)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Mittelstadt is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Mercer
Home
59.3% (91)
34.7% (144)
Away
42.5% (80)
43.2% (146)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Mercer
P1
48.8%
32.7%
P2
49.1%
42.7%
P3
56.7%
42.2%
Final 5 min
54.5%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
51.5%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%