Casey Mittelstadt vs Dawson Mercer
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 45.6% vs Mercer 39.9% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Mittelstadt leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 66.5%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 65.9%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 56.9%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Mittelstadt
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Mittelstadt
Mercer
Last 10: Mittelstadt 4-6 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
5
Mittelstadt
Mercer
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
4
1
Mittelstadt
Mercer
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
1
Mittelstadt
Mercer
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (3,922)
39.1% (1,412)
+5.9%
Power Play
49.7% (666)
41.1% (90)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (96)
40.0% (45)
-2.5%
On power play, Mittelstadt has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Mittelstadt is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,904).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Mercer
Home
46.7% (2,316)
40.0% (755)
Away
44.3% (2,368)
38.5% (792)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Mercer
P1
46.8%
38.2%
P2
46.1%
39.2%
P3
44.0%
41.1%
OT
36.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
45.5%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:53 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:09 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:58 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 03:29 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 16:29 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1 | 12:57 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 07:13 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |