Casey Mittelstadt vs Dylan Larkin
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.9% vs Larkin 52.4% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 69.4%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 50.0%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 53.1%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Last 8: Mittelstadt 3-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Mittelstadt
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
1
Mittelstadt
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Mittelstadt
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (139)
51.7% (878)
-1.3%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
58.5% (246)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
48.2% (166)
+51.8%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +51.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Mittelstadt is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (103).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Home
59.3% (91)
52.4% (647)
Away
42.5% (80)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Larkin
P1
48.8%
52.2%
P2
49.1%
53.1%
P3
56.7%
51.7%
OT
33.3%
61.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
51.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | OT | 01:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 10:38 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:17 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 06:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 06:22 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |