Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 43.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 46.4% vs Hughes 37.9% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 57.9%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 66.3%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 50.4%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Mittelstadt
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Mittelstadt
Hughes
Last 6: Mittelstadt 3-3 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
1
0
Mittelstadt
Hughes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
3
Mittelstadt
Hughes
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (569)
34.9% (444)
+10.4%
Power Play
49.6% (135)
50.0% (14)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (32)
33.3% (6)
+7.3%
On even strength, Mittelstadt has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Mittelstadt is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (446).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Hughes is 35.4% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Hughes
Home
45.1% (366)
37.4% (235)
Away
46.8% (370)
33.2% (229)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Hughes
P1
41.1%
37.1%
P2
51.1%
33.7%
P3
45.9%
34.8%
OT
30.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
44.4%
32.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
45.9%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:28 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 07:51 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 2 | 17:19 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |