Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Hughes 39.2% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Mittelstadt leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 63.9%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 86.2%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 84.3%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 77.8%
77.8%
22.2%
Mittelstadt
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Mittelstadt
Hughes
Last 10: Mittelstadt 7-3 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Mittelstadt
Hughes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mittelstadt
Hughes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
5
1
Mittelstadt
Hughes
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
37.9% (623)
+6.8%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
33.3% (33)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
36.4% (11)
+3.6%
On power play, Mittelstadt has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Mittelstadt is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Hughes
Home
46.0% (491)
36.6% (314)
Away
42.4% (512)
38.5% (353)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Hughes
P1
44.0%
36.4%
P2
46.4%
35.6%
P3
41.9%
41.8%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.3%
36.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:44 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 1 | 06:01 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 13:29 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 17:26 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 13:50 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:11 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |