Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.3% vs Hughes 40.3% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 60.0%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 90.8%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 84.5%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 84.7%
84.7%
15.3%
Mittelstadt
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Mittelstadt
Hughes
Last 5: Mittelstadt 4-1 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
0
1
Mittelstadt
Hughes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
4
0
Mittelstadt
Hughes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (935)
35.6% (281)
+10.8%
Power Play
50.3% (173)
50.0% (36)
+0.3%
On even strength, Mittelstadt has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Hughes is 35.0% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Hughes
Home
47.7% (583)
38.4% (198)
Away
46.4% (541)
35.3% (119)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Hughes
P1
50.0%
44.3%
P2
46.2%
34.2%
P3
45.5%
34.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 05:02 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 10:40 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1 | 16:00 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:48 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |