Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Evans 52.6% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 79.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 86.4%
Neutral zone
Evans 52.7%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Mittelstadt
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Mittelstadt
Evans
Last 6: Mittelstadt 3-3 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
1
Mittelstadt
Evans
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
1
0
Mittelstadt
Evans
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
2
Mittelstadt
Evans
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
54.4% (824)
-9.7%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
66.7% (9)
-26.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
48.1% (289)
-8.1%
On power play, Evans has a +26.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Mittelstadt is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Evans
Home
46.0% (491)
55.1% (541)
Away
42.4% (512)
50.8% (581)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Evans
P1
44.0%
51.8%
P2
46.4%
53.3%
P3
41.9%
53.8%
OT
50.0%
38.5%
Final 5 min
39.3%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 13:19 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 14:24 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 14:56 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:18 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Jake Evans |