Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Mittelstadt wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.3% vs Hayes 56.3% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 71.3%
Defensive zone
Hayes 57.3%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 54.4%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Mittelstadt
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Mittelstadt
Hayes
Last 5: Mittelstadt 2-3 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mittelstadt
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Mittelstadt
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
1
0
Mittelstadt
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (935)
56.6% (724)
-10.2%
Power Play
50.3% (173)
57.0% (79)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
65.7% (35)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Hayes
Home
47.7% (583)
58.0% (405)
Away
46.4% (541)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Hayes
P1
50.0%
54.7%
P2
46.2%
55.7%
P3
45.5%
60.2%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 04:15 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 15:59 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 11:19 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 19:09 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |