Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Hayes 51.7% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 67.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 75.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 73.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 71.8%
28.2%
71.8%
Mittelstadt
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Mittelstadt
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
2
Mittelstadt
Hayes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
0
Mittelstadt
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
0
Mittelstadt
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
51.6% (386)
-6.9%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
53.2% (47)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
60.0% (20)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Mittelstadt is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Hayes is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Hayes
Home
46.0% (491)
50.5% (200)
Away
42.4% (512)
53.4% (253)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Hayes
P1
44.0%
58.8%
P2
46.4%
49.3%
P3
41.9%
48.0%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:22 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:21 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |