Casey Mittelstadt vs Nathan MacKinnon
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.1% vs 46.2%). Look for Mittelstadt on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.3% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 58.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
Last 7: Mittelstadt 3-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
2
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (935)
45.5% (1,190)
+0.9%
Power Play
50.3% (173)
56.4% (94)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
40.0% (30)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Mittelstadt is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (472).
Mittelstadt shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
Home
47.7% (583)
47.8% (670)
Away
46.4% (541)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
P1
50.0%
45.3%
P2
46.2%
48.5%
P3
45.5%
45.0%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.8%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 08:20 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 04:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 10:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 05:04 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 12:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:48 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:39 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |