Casey Mittelstadt vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 45.6% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 55.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 58.9%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 50.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
Last 10: Mittelstadt 3-7 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
3
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
4
3
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (3,922)
46.1% (11,218)
-1.1%
Power Play
49.7% (666)
53.3% (1,412)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (96)
42.8% (502)
-5.3%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Mittelstadt is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,904).
Mittelstadt shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
Home
46.7% (2,316)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
44.3% (2,368)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Mittelstadt
MacKinnon
P1
46.8%
47.4%
P2
46.1%
46.6%
P3
44.0%
46.1%
OT
36.6%
48.4%
Final 5 min
43.6%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
45.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 02:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 16:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 12:05 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 01:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 08:20 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 04:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 10:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 05:04 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 12:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:48 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:39 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2 | 06:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 1 | 18:42 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 1 | 13:35 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |