Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Mittelstadt wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 45.7% vs Roy 48.9% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 63.5%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 53.7%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 65.4%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Mittelstadt
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Mittelstadt
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Mittelstadt
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Mittelstadt
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Mittelstadt
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (351)
49.5% (746)
-3.6%
Power Play
47.3% (74)
50.7% (75)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (27)
42.7% (110)
-20.5%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Mittelstadt is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (178).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Roy is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Roy
Home
47.2% (193)
47.7% (491)
Away
42.9% (259)
50.0% (440)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Roy
P1
49.0%
51.1%
P2
45.7%
44.6%
P3
38.8%
50.9%
OT
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
41.7%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:29 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:42 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 07:53 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |