Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 46.4% vs Roy 48.3% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 69.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 81.1%
Neutral zone
Roy 60.2%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Mittelstadt
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Mittelstadt
Roy
Last 9: Mittelstadt 6-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
1
Mittelstadt
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Mittelstadt
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
0
Mittelstadt
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (569)
48.3% (633)
-3.0%
Power Play
49.6% (135)
52.1% (48)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (32)
43.7% (87)
-3.1%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Mittelstadt is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Roy
Home
45.1% (366)
50.8% (376)
Away
46.8% (370)
45.4% (392)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Roy
P1
41.1%
53.8%
P2
51.1%
43.5%
P3
45.9%
46.4%
OT
30.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
44.4%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
45.9%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 17:49 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 14:22 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 12:15 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 11:52 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 07:15 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 1 | 18:32 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 1 | 02:04 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 10:20 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 13:53 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |