Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Steel 52.8% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 78.4%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 69.0%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 72.6%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 72.6%
72.6%
27.4%
Mittelstadt
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Mittelstadt
Steel
Last 5: Mittelstadt 1-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
1
4
Mittelstadt
Steel
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
56.9% (320)
-12.2%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
71.4% (7)
-31.2%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
37.0% (73)
+3.0%
On power play, Steel has a +31.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Mittelstadt is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Steel is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Steel
Home
46.0% (491)
55.9% (202)
Away
42.4% (512)
51.0% (198)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Steel
P1
44.0%
55.5%
P2
46.4%
55.1%
P3
41.9%
50.3%
Final 5 min
39.3%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 08:03 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 01:12 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 01:02 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 05:42 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 05:36 | Neutral | Sam Steel |