Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 43.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 46.4% vs Kuraly 49.7% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 87.7%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 84.0%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 51.8%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
Last 6: Mittelstadt 3-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
1
0
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
3
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (569)
49.2% (901)
-3.9%
Power Play
49.6% (135)
68.2% (22)
-18.6%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (32)
49.8% (219)
-9.2%
On power play, Kuraly has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Mittelstadt is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (446).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Kuraly is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
Home
45.1% (366)
51.7% (603)
Away
46.8% (370)
47.3% (539)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
P1
41.1%
50.9%
P2
51.1%
49.5%
P3
45.9%
49.1%
OT
30.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
44.4%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
45.9%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 14, 2023 | 2 | 04:03 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Apr 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:00 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 16:40 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |