Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.3% vs Kuraly 48.4% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 89.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 62.9%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 64.0%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
Last 8: Mittelstadt 2-6 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
0
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
3
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
3
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (935)
49.4% (445)
-3.0%
Power Play
50.3% (173)
100.0% (3)
-49.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
41.9% (117)
+8.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +49.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Kuraly is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (354).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
Home
47.7% (583)
49.2% (248)
Away
46.4% (541)
47.3% (317)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Kuraly
P1
50.0%
48.3%
P2
46.2%
44.7%
P3
45.5%
51.7%
Final 5 min
43.8%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2024 | 3 | 15:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:43 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 1 | 08:10 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 14:54 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 11:58 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |