Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.3% vs Jarvis 45.8% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Mittelstadt leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 81.2%
Defensive zone
Jarvis 52.3%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 59.0%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Mittelstadt
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Mittelstadt
Jarvis
Last 10: Mittelstadt 7-3 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
6
0
Mittelstadt
Jarvis
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mittelstadt
Jarvis
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jarvis
0
2
Mittelstadt
Jarvis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (935)
46.2% (171)
+0.2%
Power Play
50.3% (173)
51.9% (54)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
39.4% (127)
+10.6%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Mittelstadt is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (472).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Jarvis is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Jarvis
Home
47.7% (583)
46.1% (204)
Away
46.4% (541)
42.6% (148)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Jarvis
P1
50.0%
42.5%
P2
46.2%
42.9%
P3
45.5%
48.7%
Final 5 min
43.8%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Seth Jarvis |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 03:28 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 07:23 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 12:28 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 09:52 | Neutral | Seth Jarvis |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 15:17 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |