Chandler Stephenson vs Connor McDavid
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Chandler Stephenson holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 51.5% vs McDavid 47.9% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 75.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 53.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 62.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
Stephenson
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
13
(21 meetings)
8
13
Stephenson
McDavid
Last 10: Stephenson 4-6 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
6
Stephenson
McDavid
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Stephenson
McDavid
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
4
Stephenson
McDavid
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (1,041)
47.7% (715)
+3.5%
Power Play
57.8% (211)
51.9% (52)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (222)
22.2% (9)
+25.5%
On penalty kill, Stephenson has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Stephenson is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Stephenson shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
Home / Away
Stephenson
McDavid
Home
52.2% (751)
47.3% (387)
Away
51.0% (723)
48.1% (389)
By Period
Stephenson
McDavid
P1
50.4%
47.6%
P2
51.5%
50.0%
P3
53.3%
45.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
51.6%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:30 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 10:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:37 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:27 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:37 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:54 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:44 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:18 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |