Chandler Stephenson vs Connor McDavid
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Chandler Stephenson holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.3% vs McDavid 47.8% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 29-25 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 63.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 58.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 58.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Stephenson
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
29
(54 meetings)
25
29
Stephenson
McDavid
Last 10: Stephenson 7-3 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
11
10
Stephenson
McDavid
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
9
7
Stephenson
McDavid
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
12
Stephenson
McDavid
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (5,743)
47.7% (8,358)
+4.2%
Power Play
59.8% (1,107)
52.0% (371)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (823)
43.4% (279)
+2.3%
On power play, Stephenson has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Stephenson is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (5,023).
Stephenson shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
Home / Away
Stephenson
McDavid
Home
52.6% (3,827)
49.3% (4,570)
Away
52.2% (3,846)
46.1% (4,438)
By Period
Stephenson
McDavid
P1
51.6%
46.5%
P2
52.4%
48.7%
P3
52.8%
48.3%
OT
57.7%
40.9%
Final 5 min
52.2%
50.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
52.4%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:22 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:10 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 09:08 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:30 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 10:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:37 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:27 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:37 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |