Chandler Stephenson vs Dylan Larkin
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 51.5% vs Larkin 54.2% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Stephenson 56.6%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 60.4%
Neutral zone
Stephenson 61.4%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Stephenson
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Stephenson
Larkin
Last 10: Stephenson 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
3
Stephenson
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
4
Stephenson
Larkin
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Stephenson
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (1,041)
52.6% (1,117)
-1.4%
Power Play
57.8% (211)
60.7% (305)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (222)
55.9% (177)
-8.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Stephenson is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Stephenson shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Larkin
Home
52.2% (751)
54.7% (783)
Away
51.0% (723)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Stephenson
Larkin
P1
50.4%
55.9%
P2
51.5%
56.1%
P3
53.3%
51.1%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.3%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
51.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | OT | 04:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2025 | OT | 04:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2025 | OT | 02:13 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:10 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 12:53 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 3 | 11:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 17:03 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 1 | 14:51 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 1 | 14:27 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |