Chandler Stephenson vs Tomas Hertl
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Hertl 57.1% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stephenson 61.4%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 91.2%
Neutral zone
Stephenson 72.6%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
Stephenson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Stephenson
Hertl
Last 8: Stephenson 1-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
Stephenson
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stephenson
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Stephenson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (801)
58.0% (816)
-5.9%
Power Play
62.0% (242)
56.5% (260)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (183)
62.9% (35)
-23.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stephenson is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (751).
Stephenson shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Hertl
Home
53.1% (672)
59.7% (561)
Away
51.1% (554)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Stephenson
Hertl
P1
54.6%
51.4%
P2
51.3%
64.1%
P3
51.2%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
51.9%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
52.2%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |