Chandler Stephenson vs Tomas Hertl
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stephenson wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.3% vs Hertl 56.8% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stephenson 66.3%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 60.5%
Neutral zone
Stephenson 61.5%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Stephenson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Stephenson
Hertl
Last 6: Stephenson 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stephenson
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Stephenson
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (829)
57.0% (718)
-5.4%
Power Play
62.7% (142)
64.9% (188)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (79)
44.2% (77)
+0.1%
On even strength, Hertl has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stephenson is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Stephenson shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Hertl
Home
52.5% (499)
59.2% (463)
Away
52.6% (551)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Stephenson
Hertl
P1
50.2%
56.3%
P2
55.7%
55.4%
P3
50.9%
60.5%
OT
63.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2023 | OT | 01:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 04:34 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 00:24 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 12:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 17:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 04:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |