Chandler Stephenson vs Tomas Hertl
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.1% vs Hertl 56.6% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stephenson 69.3%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 92.4%
Neutral zone
Stephenson 78.1%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Stephenson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Stephenson
Hertl
Last 8: Stephenson 1-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
Stephenson
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stephenson
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Stephenson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (634)
56.6% (632)
-3.8%
Power Play
62.0% (187)
58.7% (206)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
38.6% (153)
63.6% (22)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stephenson is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (582).
Stephenson shoots left. Hertl is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (529).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Hertl
Home
52.7% (533)
59.7% (434)
Away
51.9% (441)
54.9% (426)
By Period
Stephenson
Hertl
P1
56.5%
51.0%
P2
51.8%
64.0%
P3
49.7%
57.8%
OT
50.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
53.1%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
46.0%▼
54.0%
52.4%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |