Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 51.1%). Look for McBain on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs McBain 50.9% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 58.5%
Defensive zone
Coyle 69.9%
Neutral zone
Coyle 52.2%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Coyle
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Coyle
McBain
Last 6: Coyle 1-5 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
0
1
Coyle
McBain
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
0
1
Coyle
McBain
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
1
3
Coyle
McBain
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
52.1% (545)
+0.2%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
57.1% (14)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
37.0% (46)
+7.8%
On power play, McBain has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Coyle is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Coyle shoots right. McBain is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Home / Away
Coyle
McBain
Home
49.0% (537)
52.2% (289)
Away
52.1% (516)
50.0% (316)
By Period
Coyle
McBain
P1
48.7%
52.6%
P2
49.6%
53.6%
P3
53.1%
47.1%
OT
45.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 02:47 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |