Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 50.5%
Defensive zone
Coyle 54.0%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 53.0%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Coyle
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Coyle
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Coyle
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
48.9% (280)
+3.4%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
50.0% (6)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
47.2% (36)
-2.4%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Coyle is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Coyle shoots right. Bjugstad is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Home / Away
Coyle
Bjugstad
Home
49.0% (537)
48.4% (190)
Away
52.1% (516)
49.2% (132)
By Period
Coyle
Bjugstad
P1
48.7%
41.7%
P2
49.6%
56.6%
P3
53.1%
48.7%
OT
45.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.1%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 02:29 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |