Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Coyle wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Schmaltz leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 86.0%
Defensive zone
Coyle 74.7%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 56.7%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Coyle
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Coyle
Schmaltz
Last 10: Coyle 3-7 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
2
Coyle
Schmaltz
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
5
Coyle
Schmaltz
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
45.9% (665)
+6.4%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
46.8% (111)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
50.0% (24)
-5.2%
On even strength, Coyle has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Coyle is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Coyle shoots right. Schmaltz is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Home / Away
Coyle
Schmaltz
Home
49.0% (537)
44.7% (409)
Away
52.1% (516)
47.6% (391)
By Period
Coyle
Schmaltz
P1
48.7%
40.3%
P2
49.6%
47.6%
P3
53.1%
51.0%
OT
45.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 10:57 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 10:52 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 03:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 08:21 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 15:08 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 03:47 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 03:22 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |