Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 56.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.7% vs Stamkos 56.5% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 93.1%
Defensive zone
Coyle 50.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 73.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Coyle
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Coyle
Stamkos
Last 5: Coyle 4-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (952)
57.6% (439)
-5.1%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
58.6% (111)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (210)
50.0% (10)
-6.2%
On power play, Stamkos has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Coyle is 56.2% vs right-shot opponents (313).
Coyle shoots right. Stamkos is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Coyle
Stamkos
Home
49.4% (624)
55.3% (255)
Away
52.1% (610)
59.7% (305)
By Period
Coyle
Stamkos
P1
49.9%
58.6%
P2
49.3%
54.4%
P3
53.0%
60.7%
OT
46.2%
62.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
60.0%▲
51.0%
50.7%
Stamkos
72.0%▲
61.5%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:19 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 01:06 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |