Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.7% vs Stamkos 54.4% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 88.9%
Defensive zone
Coyle 71.9%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 60.1%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Coyle
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Coyle
Stamkos
Last 5: Coyle 4-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (798)
55.8% (339)
-3.4%
Power Play
44.1% (59)
53.3% (90)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (175)
62.5% (8)
-16.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Coyle is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Coyle shoots right. Stamkos is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Home / Away
Coyle
Stamkos
Home
49.0% (537)
53.4% (208)
Away
52.7% (495)
57.2% (229)
By Period
Coyle
Stamkos
P1
49.5%
55.3%
P2
49.7%
52.5%
P3
53.0%
58.9%
OT
45.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
49.8%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
62.0%▲
52.0%
50.8%
Stamkos
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:19 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 01:06 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |