Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Coyle wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 51.5% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Coyle leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 91.6%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 61.6%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 80.3%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Coyle
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
Coyle
Stamkos
Last 10: Coyle 9-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
3
Coyle
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
8
0
Coyle
Stamkos
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,046)
55.9% (499)
-2.9%
Power Play
57.6% (144)
56.3% (126)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (287)
58.3% (12)
-14.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Coyle is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Coyle shoots right. Stamkos is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (151).
Home / Away
Coyle
Stamkos
Home
54.5% (719)
55.3% (349)
Away
48.8% (758)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Coyle
Stamkos
P1
51.1%
57.0%
P2
50.0%
59.2%
P3
53.3%
51.5%
OT
57.1%
55.6%
Final 5 min
48.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
51.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2024 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 08:15 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 01:47 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 19:11 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 09:53 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 06:53 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 03:42 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 19:23 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 01:14 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 18:35 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 1 | 11:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |