Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 93.3%
Defensive zone
Coyle 52.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 74.3%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 67.4%
32.6%
67.4%
Coyle
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Coyle
Stamkos
Last 5: Coyle 4-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
56.1% (342)
-3.8%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
53.3% (92)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
62.5% (8)
-17.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Coyle is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Coyle shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Coyle
Stamkos
Home
49.0% (537)
53.4% (208)
Away
52.1% (516)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Coyle
Stamkos
P1
48.7%
55.6%
P2
49.6%
52.8%
P3
53.1%
59.1%
OT
45.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
49.1%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:19 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 01:06 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |