Christian Dvorak vs Connor McDavid
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 52.9% vs McDavid 47.9% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Dvorak leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Dvorak 63.5%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 85.8%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 77.1%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 71.6%
71.6%
28.4%
Dvorak
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
1
(10 meetings)
9
1
Dvorak
McDavid
Last 10: Dvorak 9-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
6
0
Dvorak
McDavid
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
0
Dvorak
McDavid
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Dvorak
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (762)
47.5% (650)
+6.2%
Power Play
54.0% (124)
48.6% (72)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (82)
46.5% (43)
+1.1%
On even strength, Dvorak has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Dvorak is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Dvorak shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Dvorak
McDavid
Home
53.6% (461)
50.2% (400)
Away
52.9% (507)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Dvorak
McDavid
P1
54.1%
47.5%
P2
52.9%
48.6%
P3
53.8%
46.7%
OT
36.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.3%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.2%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:39 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:08 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 07:29 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:56 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:31 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 16:24 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |