Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 52.9% vs Tavares 57.2% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Dvorak 74.9%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 84.2%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 74.2%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
Dvorak
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
12
(16 meetings)
4
12
Dvorak
Tavares
Last 10: Dvorak 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
Dvorak
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
5
Dvorak
Tavares
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Dvorak
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (762)
58.0% (914)
-4.3%
Power Play
54.0% (124)
57.0% (235)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (82)
57.9% (19)
-10.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Dvorak is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Dvorak shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Tavares
Home
53.6% (461)
57.8% (614)
Away
52.9% (507)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Dvorak
Tavares
P1
54.1%
58.0%
P2
52.9%
56.9%
P3
53.8%
58.4%
OT
36.4%
57.7%
Final 5 min
46.3%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | OT | 04:30 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 2, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 06:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 16:08 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:29 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 09:45 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:33 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:21 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 12:31 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:16 | Neutral | John Tavares |