Christian Dvorak vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 55.3% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 80.7%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 72.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 59.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 62.7%
37.3%
62.7%
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Last 10: Dvorak 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
5
Dvorak
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
0
Dvorak
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (857)
49.2% (1,266)
+7.2%
Power Play
69.0% (29)
54.9% (193)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (174)
49.1% (55)
+1.5%
On power play, Dvorak has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Dvorak is 54.6% vs right-shot opponents (441).
Dvorak shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Home
55.1% (501)
50.9% (740)
Away
56.4% (559)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Dvorak
MacKinnon
P1
55.8%
50.9%
P2
52.5%
51.8%
P3
58.2%
47.1%
OT
63.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
54.9%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
55.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | OT | 03:08 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | OT | 02:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:29 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 04:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 04:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:27 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 04:01 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |