Christian Dvorak vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 52.9% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.1%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 64.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Last 10: Dvorak 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
6
Dvorak
MacKinnon
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
0
Dvorak
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Dvorak
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (762)
50.0% (992)
+3.7%
Power Play
54.0% (124)
64.9% (148)
-10.9%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (82)
34.4% (32)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Dvorak is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (337).
Dvorak shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Home
53.6% (461)
53.3% (591)
Away
52.9% (507)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Dvorak
MacKinnon
P1
54.1%
49.9%
P2
52.9%
53.2%
P3
53.8%
50.8%
OT
36.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.3%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 15:17 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 18:57 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 16:27 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:48 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 04:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 03:52 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |