Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Dvorak wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 56.0% vs Sturm 59.0% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 61.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 75.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 63.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Dvorak
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Dvorak
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (291)
60.6% (708)
-3.6%
Power Play
83.3% (18)
61.1% (18)
+22.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
56.4% (101)
-6.4%
On power play, Dvorak has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dvorak is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Dvorak shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Sturm
Home
58.3% (151)
61.6% (451)
Away
57.4% (190)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Dvorak
Sturm
P1
56.7%
55.9%
P2
56.7%
58.9%
P3
59.6%
64.6%
OT
60.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
61.8%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
57.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 07:52 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |