Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 55.3% vs Sturm 57.1% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 52.6%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 57.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 58.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Dvorak
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Dvorak
Sturm
Last 8: Dvorak 4-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dvorak
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
1
Dvorak
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Dvorak
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (857)
62.1% (356)
-5.7%
Power Play
69.0% (29)
75.0% (4)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (174)
38.7% (62)
+11.9%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dvorak is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Dvorak shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Sturm
Home
55.1% (501)
61.8% (191)
Away
56.4% (559)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Dvorak
Sturm
P1
55.8%
58.0%
P2
52.5%
57.9%
P3
58.2%
60.6%
Final 5 min
54.9%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
55.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 15:25 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 15:23 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 15:16 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 09:20 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 02:01 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 01:53 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |