Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Dvorak wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 51.8% vs Sturm 55.2% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 69.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 53.4%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 50.2%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Dvorak
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Dvorak
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
0
Dvorak
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Dvorak
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (686)
56.1% (716)
-3.9%
Power Play
49.0% (104)
67.7% (31)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (127)
51.1% (133)
+2.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dvorak is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (575).
Dvorak shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Sturm
Home
54.1% (423)
55.6% (412)
Away
50.2% (494)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Dvorak
Sturm
P1
51.4%
59.6%
P2
52.0%
52.0%
P3
52.4%
55.5%
OT
60.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:32 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 02:47 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |