Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Dvorak wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.1% vs Sturm 56.1% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Dvorak leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 53.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 83.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 66.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Dvorak
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
7
(21 meetings)
14
7
Dvorak
Sturm
Last 10: Dvorak 5-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
5
1
Dvorak
Sturm
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
1
Dvorak
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
6
5
Dvorak
Sturm
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (6,743)
57.1% (2,719)
-4.1%
Power Play
55.7% (1,005)
61.3% (62)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (887)
51.0% (498)
+0.0%
On power play, Sturm has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dvorak is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,559).
Dvorak shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Sturm
Home
54.7% (4,115)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
51.7% (4,520)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Dvorak
Sturm
P1
54.5%
56.5%
P2
51.8%
54.9%
P3
53.0%
57.4%
OT
56.9%
60.6%
Final 5 min
51.5%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 15:25 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 15:23 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 15:16 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 09:20 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 02:01 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 01:53 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 07:52 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:32 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 02:47 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 3 | 10:35 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 2 | 11:56 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 12, 2021 | 2 | 10:49 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 3 | 11:16 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 2 | 15:54 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |