Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Giroux on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Giroux wins 63.6% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Giroux 60.9% vs McDavid 47.9% (+15.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Giroux 78.1%
Defensive zone
Giroux 88.0%
Neutral zone
Giroux 76.5%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Giroux
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Giroux
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
2
1
Giroux
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
1
0
Giroux
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Giroux
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
60.3% (395)
47.5% (650)
+12.8%
Power Play
67.3% (107)
48.6% (72)
+18.7%
Penalty Kill
65.4% (153)
46.5% (43)
+18.9%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Giroux is 63.6% vs left-shot opponents (519).
Giroux shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
Giroux
McDavid
Home
65.9% (337)
50.2% (400)
Away
59.1% (318)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Giroux
McDavid
P1
62.1%
47.5%
P2
64.5%
48.6%
P3
60.9%
46.7%
OT
70.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
60.3%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
62.6%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 17:22 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:43 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |