Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +24.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Perfetti wins 37.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Perfetti 42.5% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-24.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Perfetti 62.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 64.4%
Neutral zone
Perfetti 55.4%
Result
Cole Perfetti favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Perfetti
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Perfetti
O'Reilly
Last 5: Perfetti 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Perfetti
1
0
Perfetti
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Perfetti
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Perfetti
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Perfetti
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
31.6% (57)
56.2% (983)
-24.6%
Power Play
30.0% (10)
55.5% (254)
-25.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Perfetti is 37.0% vs left-shot opponents (46).
Perfetti shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Perfetti
O'Reilly
Home
27.5% (40)
56.2% (697)
Away
37.0% (27)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Perfetti
O'Reilly
P1
34.6%
54.5%
P2
32.0%
55.5%
P3
25.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
21.4%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Perfetti
38.0%▲
34.6%
31.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Cole Perfetti |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 00:11 | Offensive | Cole Perfetti |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |