Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +21.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Perfetti wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Perfetti 39.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-21.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Perfetti 79.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 65.2%
Neutral zone
Perfetti 67.5%
Result
Cole Perfetti favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Perfetti
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Perfetti
O'Reilly
Last 6: Perfetti 2-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Perfetti
1
0
Perfetti
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Perfetti
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Perfetti
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Perfetti
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
32.1% (156)
56.2% (15,260)
-24.1%
Power Play
45.7% (35)
58.8% (3,445)
-13.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Perfetti is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (127).
Perfetti shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Perfetti
O'Reilly
Home
33.6% (116)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
36.0% (75)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Perfetti
O'Reilly
P1
34.4%
55.6%
P2
34.6%
57.0%
P3
34.7%
55.1%
Final 5 min
34.8%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Perfetti
38.0%▲
34.6%
34.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Cole Perfetti |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 00:11 | Offensive | Cole Perfetti |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |